Is confidence creeping back into the market? That’s the question on everyone’s mind as the fall auction season gets under way in New York. Certainly, the economic climate is rosier than the disaster atmosphere that prevailed last fall, following the global financial meltdown and subsequent grounding of the high-flying art market. Still, auction house guarantees and $10 million-plus pictures have largely been relegated to historical footnotes.

"There are no guarantees as of now, and it’s very unlikely we’ll get one," says Sotheby’s contemporary department head Alex Rotter. "It’s straight consignments and back to auction house basics."

"What falls by the wayside is the B-quality material, and there are far fewer trade-driven consignments," says Conor Jordan, newly appointed head of the Christie’s Imp/mod department. "There are slimmer pickings but choicer ones." That lean ethos seems suitable for a market that, as Jordan observes, retains "a bit of anxiety."

Christie’s season-launching Impressionist and modern sale on November 3 presents a relatively modest lineup. Among the two-dimensional offerings is Henri Fantin-Latours 1865 Fleurs et fruits (est. $2-3 million), a still life of a pot of China asters, a cut melon, a plate of grapes and a basket of peaches that was originally brokered by fellow painter James Abbott McNeill Whistler to Theodore Coronio, a Greek merchant living in London. Another Impressionist gem is Camille Pissarros plein air Le pont du chemin de fer, Pontoise, circa 1873 (est. $3.5-4.5 million), from what the art historian Richard Brettell has described as "the apex of Pissarro’s career as a landscape painter." Indeed, the picture excelled in its last auction outing, at Christie’s New York in May 1997, when it surpassed its $2 million high estimate to sell for $2.6 million. Another notable lot is the circa 1896 Edgar Degas pastel on paper Danseuses (est. $7-9 million), showing two ballerinas at rest.

Topping the sculpture entries is a rare 34-inch-high lifetime cast, from an edition of five, of Auguste Rodins Le baiser (est. $1.5-2 million), conceived circa 1886. The seller acquired it for $31,000 in the Geraldine Rockefeller Dodge sale in New York at Sotheby Parke Bernet in October 1975.

In the modern category is the sale’s most expensive lot: Pablo Picassos spare and powerful wartime Tête de femme, from October 1943, estimated at $7 million to $10 million. The highly abstract canvas, dominated by the sitter’s staring eyes and elaborate hat, probably depicts Dora Maar, the artist’s mistress and muse at the time. In a more surreal vein is Max Ernsts eerie decalcomania painting Profanation of Spring, 1945 (est. $1.5-2 million). In this densely packed landscape of bulging, disembodied eyes, Ernst, who escaped from Europe during World War II to the bucolic eastern end of Long Island, alludes to both the disasters of war and the raw power of nature.

More meditative is Henri Matisses Rosace, 1954 (est. $3-4 million), a large, 76 inches in diameter, paper-cutout collage mounted on canvas, whose pattern of deconstructed rose petals and pomegranates the artist likened to a musical score. The piece, which Matisse created as a maquette for a stained-glass window commissioned in 1954 by the Rockefellers in honor of Abby Aldrich Rockefeller, is considered his last major work.

The Sotheby’s Imp/mod evening sale on November 4 offers an abundance of estate and fresh-to-market material. On the Impressionist side is Auguste Renoirs Femme au chapeau blanc, from the early 1890s. Estimated at $2.5 million to $3.5 million, the lavish oil is the priciest of seven works from the collection of the family of the famed Impressionist dealer Paul Durand-Ruel. Also on the roster are two early 20th-century pictures from other private collections: André Derain’s stunning circa 1905 Fauve landscape Barques au port de Collioure (est. $6-8 million), which last sold at Christie’s New York in November 1993 for $2.6 million, and Kees van Dongens exotic and sumptuously colored Jeune Arabe, 1910, depicting a bare-chested boy (est. $7-10 million).

"There’s a feeling that clients want to transact more, so there’s a sense of confidence in the marketplace, " says Sotheby’s director of Imp/mod evening sales Emmanuel Di-Donna, who nevertheless cautions, "It’s still driven by quality and price. If you’ve got something great at the wrong price, you’re not going to sell it, and if it’s not good enough, people just wait till the next time until they see something that they can get excited about."

Excitement should be high for Wassily Kandinskys dazzling geometric Krass und Mild ("Dramatic and Mild") in part because of the current exhibition of the artist’s work at the Guggenheim in New York. Estimated at $6 million to $8 million, the painting was completed at the Bauhaus in 1932, a year before the Nazis shuttered the school. The consignor is the estate of the collector and patron Arthur M. Sackler, who acquired the work for $27,000 at Sotheby’s London in 1964, when the Solomon R. Guggenheim Foundation quietly deaccessioned 50 Kandinskys.

Even with such first-rate property, the house is mindful that the market remains, as Di-Donna puts it, "unforgiving." That may explain the so-called irrevocable bid Sotheby’s secured from an anonymous third party guaranteeing the sale of Picasso’s lively 1949 Claude à deux ans et son cheval de bois (est. $5-7 million), in which he portrays his two-year-old son playing on a rocking horse, an activity the 68-year-old artist reportedly enjoyed watching. The picture was acquired from the Pierre Matisse Gallery in 1985, giving it fresh-to-market value.

Christie’s takes back the spotlight on November 10 with its postwar and contemporary evening sale, replete with choice property from the collection of the late avant-garde composer John Cage and choreographer Merce Cunningham, proceeds from which will benefit the Merce Cunningham Trust (which administers the rights to his dances). Highlights include Philip Gustons black-ink drawing Untitled, 1953 (est. $150-200,000); Jasper Johnss symbol-laden painting Dancers on a Plane, 1980-81 (est. $1.5-2 million); and Robert Rauschenbergs 1951 No. 1 (est. $800,000-1.2 million), which Cage acquired from the artist’s first one-person show that year at the Betty Parsons Gallery, in New York. Rauschenberg and Johns were closely involved as artistic advisers to the Merce Cunningham Dance Company, and their works represent a kind of homage to that richly collaborative period.

Also going on the block is quality material from less-storied sources, including Willem de Koonings 1946 Untitled (Woman), a small gem in oil and graphite on paper (est. $600-800,000) from the collection of the artist Marisol, and Sam Franciss major 1958 Japan Line (est. $1.5-2 million), a holdover from the Betty Freeman estate auction last season, which included a record-breaking David Hockney. Among the abstracts on offer are Ellsworth Kellys large 1961 canvas White Black (est. $700,000-1 million) and Mark Rothkos modestly scaled 1967 Blue, Red, Black on Red in acrylic on paper mounted on panel (est. $1.5-2 million). A West Coast private collection is consigning the 12-inch-high bronze and steel Abandoned Foundation Landscape, 1946 (est. $700,000-$1 million), an early David Smith that it bought from the artist. Also on the block is the rare-to-market Untitled (DSS 120), 1968-70, Donald Judds 10-unit stack in stainless steel and amber-hued Plexiglas (est. $3.5-5.5 million).

"This is not a season of $10 million art works," says department head Robert Manley. "Our goal this whole year has been about restoring confidence levels, to show to both buyers and sellers that it remains an active market. We’re trying to dispel this notion that now is not the time to sell by offering fresh material at incredibly attractive estimates. We’ve been able to keep the estimates where they ought to be, and if we couldn’t, we preferred to walk away."

Surprisingly, the house’s two most expensive offerings both date from the 1990s: Peter Doigs monumental painting Reflection (What Does Your Soul Look Like?), 1996 (est. $4-6 million) and Jeff Koonss polychrome wood sculpture Large Vase of Flowers, 1991 (est. $4-6 million). Doig’s secondary market remains red hot, as evidenced in London this summer, when Night Playground, 1997-98, was the top lot at Christie’s, at £3 million ($5 million), and Almost Grown, 2000, fetched £2 million ($3.4 million) at Sotheby’s. The Koons, from an edition of three plus one artist proof, last appeared at Christie’s London in June 2000, when it sold for £664,000 ($999,000). A version of it was recently on view in the artist’s exhibition in the palace of Versailles.

The evening action resumes at Sotheby’s on November 11 with important works from the collection of the late Akron, Ohio, art patrons Louis and Mary Schiller Myers. Among them are two de Koonings — the lushly painted 1977 Untitled XV (est. $5-7 million) and the relatively rare bronze Large Torso, 1974 (est. $4-6 million) — plus a Hockney that could test the record set at Christie’s last season, when his 1966-67 Beverly Hills Housewife fetched nearly $8 million. The 1964 California Art Collector (est. $5-7 million) was the artist’s first composition dedicated to his new and glamorous surroundings in Beverly Hills. Incorporating a swimming pool and a fierce African mask in the living room, the scene, according to Hockney, was "a complete invention," although it was informed by a tour of collectors’ houses that his London dealer, John Kasmin, took him on during his initial stay in L.A. "I’d never seen houses like that," Hockney says. "And the way they liked to show them off! They were mostly women — the husbands were out earning the money." The painting was included in the artist’s traveling retrospective of 1988-89 and last came up at auction as the cover lot at Sotheby’s New York in November 1993, when it made $1 million.

"It was very difficult to pry things loose" in May, recalls Rotter of Sotheby’s. "This time the Myers estate helped us in the gathering season with a core of 20 classic works. That’s what collectors want to buy: classical material. In that sense, the market feels more alive from all different angles."

Also going under the hammer on November 11 is Jasper Johns’s pristine Gray Numbers in encaustic on canvas from 1957 (est. $5-7 million). The first in the artist’s groundbreaking gray-number series, it was bought from his 1958 debut exhibition, at the Leo Castelli Gallery, in New York, by the pioneering Museum of Modern Art curator Dorothy Miller. Her estate put it up in 2003 at Christie’s New York, where it was the cover lot, fetching $5.3 million. Its 2009 estimate is exactly the same as the one in 2003, reflecting both Sotheby’s conservative projection and the market’s current allergy to big numbers. Another stunning lot is Andy Warhols 40-by-30-inch watercolor, ink and pencil on paper Untitled (Roll of Dollar Bills), 1962 (est. $2.5-3.5 million), one of only three Warhol drawings of the subject in this size; a second resides in MoMas collection.

Phillips de Pury & Companys November 12 evening offers the most cutting-edge material of the season. A rare-to-market Felix Gonzalez- Torres untitled work from 1994 (est. $250-350,000), comprising five black-and-white photographs of birds flying over water epitomizes his inquiries into the passage of time. Olafur Eliasson is represented by the 1999 installation 1m3 Light (est. $300-500,000). Composed of a fog machine and lights, it was part of a recent midcareer retrospective that was organized by the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art and that touched down in New York at MoMa and P.S. 1 earlier this year.

"The whole market has shifted," says Phillipss contemporary director, Aileen Agopian. "The intriguing challenge this season has been all about getting the consignor and the auction house on the same page."

"New York Sales Preview" originally appeared in the November 2009 issue of Art+Auction. For a complete list of articles from this issue available on ARTINFO, see Art+Auction's November 2009 Table of Contents.