The tumult in the international markets this week splashed the threat of a double-dip recession across headlines as stocks seemed to tumble and rally every other day. What does this mean for the seemingly bulletproof art market, ARTINFO wondered — and what, in particular, does it portend for the coming fall auctions? While it is largely too soon to tell what the global economic situation is going to look like by November, the major auction houses are in the process of collecting the last of their consignments for fall sales. Could they be affected by turbulence in the financial market?

ARTINFO spoke to three prominent art advisors — Lisa Schiff, Todd Levin, and Allan Schwartzman — to find out which way they thought the winds might blow this fall. Here is what they had to say. 

IT'S LATE IN THE CONSIGNMENT PERIOD

The process of acquiring consignments began just after the spring sales, so the auction houses are already deep into their acquisition process and probably have about two-thirds of their inventory for fall already, according to Levin.

CREDIT HASN'T BEEN CRUNCHED THE WAY IT WAS IN 2008

Schwartzman postulated that the lower prices the art market saw in late 2008 and 2009 were probably a result of the lack of available credit after the collapse of the housing bubble. Lack of credit means lack of cash on hand, which means less money changing hands. But interest rates are low and there still seems to be cash in the market.

COLLECTORS HAVE BEEN ACTIVE THIS SUMMER

No matter what is going on in the larger world, the art market is fueled by the willingness of buyers and sellers to make transactions. Until supply or demand dries up, the art market will keep chugging along. "I don't feel any hesitation from my clients at all," said Schiff. Schwartzman echoed her sentiment, saying that he has a number of clients in the process of acquiring high-quality work. "For me this is an especially active August," he said.

THE ART MARKET HAS ITS OWN CYCLES, BUT IS NOT UNCONNECTED TO WORLD EVENTS

The art market might not be affected by a downturn — it may even get a boost from falling equities as people look to diversify their portfolios — but it can't survive a market collapse. Levin recalls the late 1980s, when a bouyant Japanese market pushed art prices to dizzying heights. Exports from auction were about $607 million in 1990, the year that Ryoei Saito bought Vincent van Gogh's "Portrait of Dr. Gachet" for a record $82 million and Pierre-Auguste Renoir's "Moulin de la Galette" for $78 million. Just a year later exports were 5000 percent less (yes, 5000 percent), down to $12 million after the bubble burst. "There is no doubt that what happens in the broader market indices is going to have an effect on the art market," noted Levin.

NO ONE KNOWS WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING YET

The week's crazy equities trading could signal a slight correction or a major shift, but in the short term it is a wait-and-see game. There is no reason to panic because of the numbers after a few trading days, according to Levin. "If you haven't lived through a couple of booms and a couple of busts, you don't understand how to sit in the middle of confusion," he said.

Sotheby's did not return a call for comment, but a statement from Christie's proclaimed that the auction house remains "cautiously optimistic" about the fall. At this point there is no reason not to be. But there is also no doubt that the art market is keeping an eye on global economic volatility.