Beijing’s fall auction season opened last week, and it has already confirmed the pattern set at Sotheby’s in Hong Kong last month of a cooler-headed market which, in the face of financial turmoil abroad and a credit crunch at home, is forsaking risk for quality. Unproven contemporary names were shunned in Beijing and even established artists failed where offerings were mediocre or reserves were unrealistic. Buyers prepared to spend were drawn — as in Hong Kong — to Chinese modern masters, antiquities, and artistic works of iron-clad provenance.

Of course, this air of measured prudence was partly due to the top-flight standing of the auction houses dominating the first week of a season that will run through many less distinguished establishments on the way to its close on December 9. The first week’s leader was China Guardian, the country’s oldest fine-art auction house and the player that, due both to its longevity (it was founded in 1993) and the relative transparency of its dealings, is the house that most closely aligns with international competitors like Christie’s and Sotheby’s. Other notable houses in action last week were Beijing Hanhai (China's third-most-prominent house after Poly Auctions and Guardian, and the seventh biggest in the world according to France’s Conseil des ventes), and Christie’s trademark licensee in mainland China, Forever auctions.

As we look toward Christie’s first Hong Kong sale of the season this Friday and the sales of China’s top house, Poly, next month, ARTINFO China brings you our picks for the six trends of the Chinese season so far.

1. MAINLAND AUCTIONS STILL OUTSTRIP HONG KONG

Guardian took RMB 3.858 billion ($607 million) in its season last week, down from its spring total of RMB 5.323 billion ($823.038 million) but still eclipsing last month’s season result for Sotheby’s Hong Kong, which took in a very healthy HK$3.2 billion ($411 million) against a pre-season estimate of HK$2.7 billion ($346 million). Given recent history, it can be expected that Guardian will also best Christie’s Hong Kong this fall. Notably even the smaller Chinese mainland house, Beijing Hanhai, last week took RMB 2.1 billion ($330 million), just short of Sotheby’s Hong Kong fall season take.

2. CHINESE MODERN MASTERS RULE THE MARKET

As also demonstrated in Hong Kong, the hottest section of the market here continues to be Chinese modern masters — the revered 20^th-century practitioners of traditional Chinese painting. The key names here are Zhang Daqian (1899-1983), Qi Baishi (1864-1957), Fu Baoshi (1904-1965), and Xu Beihong (1895-1953), each of whom already holds a place on the top-ten artists by auction compiled by Artprice (with Zhang and Qi tracking to be number one and two this year, edging Picasso into third place). No new world records for Chinese painting have been set so far this fall: that was Guardian’s feat in spring when Qi Baishi’s “A Long Life, a Peaceful World” (1946) sold for $65 million, the most a Chinese painting has ever fetched at auction. But new artist records were set by Fu Baoshi and Wu Guanzhong (1919-2010), whose already healthy prices have skyrocketed since his death last year and who could well edge into the top rankings of artists at auction this year. Fu Baoshi could be judged to have broken his own record twice this season, since if the eight leaves from an album of Fu’s paintings interpreting the poems of Mao Zedong are considered to be a single work then the RMB 230 million ($36.16 million) they fetched at Hanhai auctions last week blitzes the artist record set earlier in the week at Guardian by his “Poetry of a Journey of the Pipa,” which sold for RMB 82.8 million ($13 million). Although other sectors of the market such as Chinese antique furniture also did quite strongly last week, Chinese modern masters are by far the stars of the season so far.

3. HONG KONG REMAINS THE PLACE TO SELL CHINESE CONTEMPORARY ART

Another trend that has already been confirmed this season is that the majority of quality lots in Chinese contemporary art are being consigned in Hong Kong, not Beijing. This was most starkly demonstrated by the decision by Guy and Miriam Ullens to sell the highest-value tranches of their Chinese contemporary collection through Sotheby’s Hong Kong in spring and fall this year rather than through their favored local house, Poly. And this Saturday, 14 important early works by Chinese contemporary art stars will make up a glittering evening sale at Christie’s Hong Kong. Meanwhile, one can only wonder at the hubris of the consignors who sent out a series of untried young artists as so much cannon fodder in Guardian’s evening sale of Contemporary Chinese painting last Wednesday, only to see work after work passed in. This run of failures turned the evening sale into a near fiasco, with Guardian’s sell-through rate of 78 percent established earlier in the day at their Chinese modern oil painting sale almost reversed when the contemporary sale had approximately the same percentage of lots bought in.

4. CHINA'S BLUE CHIPS STAY BLUE 

Despite the lack of quality lots in Beijing, the market status of a number of China’s best-selling contemporary artists was upheld. Even with fairly indifferent work, Liu Wei — a market favourite in Hong Kong and in the West as well — lit up the room at Guardian’s depressed sale of Chinese contemporary, while a superb early work by Zhou Chunya, “Sheepshearing” (1981), set a new artist record when it was hammered after a bout of spirited bidding for a total price (including buyer’s premium) of RMB 30.45 million ($4.785 million). On the other hand, Cai Guo Qiang, who has also had mixed results in Hong Kong, failed to meet the expectations of his consignor when his 2003 work “Light Cycle Explosion Project for Central Park” was bought in at RMB 54 million ($8.486 million) against an undisclosed estimate. More than one observer in Beijing suspected that the consignor had hoped to set a new record for Chinese contemporary art, held currently by Zhang Xiaogang’s “Forever Lasting Love” (1988), which sold this spring at Sotheby’s Hong Kong for $10 million. It was a fool’s errand in this cooling market.

5. MORE SAFEGUARDS INSTALLED AGAINST DEADBEAT BUYERS

Eyebrows were raised this spring when Christie’s and Sotheby’s Hong Kong imposed bidding deposits on high-value lots to discourage impecunious showoffs. But no one noticed that Guardian had already moved that way last fall, and the policy is fast becoming the standard at all the leading Beijing houses, where the heady temptations of hot money and hammer fever are well understood.

6. THE BIG BOYS DOUBLE DOWN ON FIRST-CLASS LUXURY

It’s obvious that the leading Beijing auction houses see China’s undistinguished, fly-by-night salesrooms as a threat to their brand. The big names are putting some distance between themselves and the herd, and we can expect to see more of this brand differentiation as the market matures.